Only paranoia survive!

一、“超级女声”立体营销概述

（一）相关概念推介

1、品牌

产品作为实体的物化，可复制，也可批量生产；品牌是产品的代号，受法律形式保护而保有其原创性。我们认为，湖南广电和上海天娱制作的“超级女声”节目从开始时的“产品”经过规范化和系统化已经成为了大众耳熟能详的知名品牌。这一品牌的拥有者是和湖南卫视有着血缘联系的天娱传媒。

历时数月的“超女”比赛不光把自身捧成“品牌”，并且蒙牛酸酸乳、湖南卫视和掌上灵通也分别在各自领域赢得声誉。如今“电视湘军”一词作为推成出新的代表红遍了国内传媒界。

品牌的发展历程从低到高呈金字塔态势，位于金字塔低端的品牌卖点为USP，即Unique Selling Proposition.往上依次是ESP-OSP-BSP-MSP。顶端是Me Selling Proposition，“我”卖点，与“超女”们大众化、互动化定位一致。自2004年“超女”首次开播以来，湖南广电就开始运行短信评选模式，让群众从场外融入场内，扎扎实实过了把“当家作主”的瘾。MSP还体现在节目定位上，“超女”的运作过程强调让群众“产生归属感”，有了归属感才有参与的激情。而唤起人们集体参与正是蒙牛、广电和SP提供商“打”的算盘。“超女”品牌具备广泛参与的基础，其背后赞助者蒙牛的酸酸乳品牌享受它外溢的正影响，心理学上称为“移情作用”或“晕轮效应”，营销学上称为唤起广大消费者的美好情感从而培养品牌忠诚度。

2、忠诚度

首先要区分品牌关注度和忠诚度，或者说要区分品牌知名度到美誉度再到使消费者产生到终端销售点购买欲望的“度”。不可否认，“超女”立体营销模式很和谐地平衡了幕后策划者的利益。蒙牛集团利用“超女”带来的品牌关注度，知名度一跃超过乳业传统领袖品牌伊利和光明。2005年8月“超女”总决选万人空巷的时候，人们对酸酸乳的关注也达到了顶峰。但有一个残酷的数据对比表明，蒙牛酸酸乳虽然品牌知名度第一，铺货率不到10%，与伊利的12%相比还有很大差距（让人联想到当年龙永图带领中国代表团成功谈判，加入WTO，中国无人不提他的功劳，但他仍然没有被选为商务部部长。这个道理类似于品牌关注度和忠诚度的区别）。

品牌知名度容易建立，广告先行。有“脑白金”往央视砸钱，对受众进行“送礼标准”的轰炸；还比如打开邮箱会铺天盖地而来的垃圾广告，走在路上不断被塞给的考研培训班传单让我们无处可遁。知名度要产生正面的影响需要道德标准和行业标准对商家进行共同规范。最难的是品牌的纵深发展和持久发展，即品牌忠诚度的培养。

“超级女声”的参与者和关注者主要集中在16-24岁这个区域里的年轻人，他们个性张扬、渴望参与、有表现欲望、充满激情和活力。同样，按照蒙牛液态奶市场部的调研结果，酸酸乳的消费者市场占有年龄在20岁左右的年轻人细分市场，这类消费者的特点是生活来源来自父母的资助。我们承认两大品牌的目标市场是统一的，但我们更关注知名度的结果，在这个资讯泛滥的年代，在消费者形成最终购买决策的瞬间，知名度能否一定能转化成购买力，怎么样的知名度可以更加高效地帮助消费者将心动变为行动？并且，酸酸乳和“超女”的消费者—年轻人的消费心理处于不断变化、不断成熟的过程，蒙牛和天娱树立起来的品牌能保有多久的“顾客”？培养一个新顾客比留存老顾客（Customer Retain）要多投入80%的精力和时间，这是营销人的常识。

3、冠名

在这个广告轰炸和明星代言已经不具有新意的时代，冠名一项赛事或节目，辅之以后媒体配合及市场活动跟进成为促销策略的贵族。随着节目或赛事的进程，冠名把企业的形象“润物细无声”般地穿透信息爆炸时代消费者自我保护而形成的“信息壁垒”。

企业光冠名得不到什么收益，校园里多的是某某餐馆冠名某某足球赛，和前述知名度与购买欲望的分析一样，扩大宣传范围作用十分有限。最关键的还是企业对赞助权益的发挥，以及对固有渠道系统的整合。，蒙牛集团拿下“超级女声”冠名权，就相当于跻身“超女财富快车”的头等舱，把该品牌作为了自身品牌的一大主要内容。液体奶市场部启动了全方位的营销计划，将冠名的效应发挥到最大化。

这一计划包括签约天中文化、动用蒙牛渠道资源在各赛区宣传、和湖南广电联手等，完成了全媒体立体式营销的“冠名”。

（二）2005“超女”大事记

案 例 大 纲

一、“超级女声”立体营销概述

（一）相关概念推介

1、品牌

2、忠诚度

3、冠名

（二）“超女”大事记

（三）“超女”同类产品

（四）“超女”经济链

二、传媒界“超女革命”

（一）“超女”及其参照组纵览

（二）上海天娱为何胜出

（三）传媒整合革命

三、酸酸甜甜就是“蒙牛”

（一）整合营销范本一说

（二）“为什么是‘超女’？”

1、“超女”为蒙牛带来了什么？

2、思路的根本来源

3、选择“超女”

（三）大众歌秀——从超女模式到超女模仿

（四）品牌双赢 赢耶？ 输耶？

四、立体营销点睛之笔——联袂SP

（一）“不只是吸引”——解读“掌上灵通 +湖南卫视+观众”营销模式

1、SP促 “定制化超女”，消费型节目眼前一亮

2、虚拟的供应链，真实的效益

3、网聚人的力量——“SP+电视”

（二）“SP+电视”好像更火了——从超女模式到超女模仿？

（三）掌上灵通与湖南卫视——并非必然的合作带来必然的成功

1、并非每个人都玩得起——没有金刚钻，别揽瓷器活

2、并非打一枪换个地方——战略合作，模式领先

五、结尾

小组队长：TT

分析背景

2005年蒙牛乳业集团和湖南广电、掌上灵通合作推出的“蒙牛酸酸乳超级女声”已成为营销人心目中的盛宴。其丝丝入扣的商业策划、谐和互动的整合营销不光赋予“超级女声”这一平民化产品高附加值和晕轮效应扩张的空间，也为幕后赞助商蒙牛乳业集团赢得液态奶市场的强势占有率，同时，湖南广电及中天娱乐作为传媒界的中坚分子地位得到巩固，且无线网络增值服务暗含的数千万价值也在“超女”的民主选举方式中找到了现实的印证。从而实业企业、广电传媒和电子商务企业以各自的专业素养“三元一体”地创造出“超女”经济链。

从专业的角度，我们主张透过三家主要造“星”企业炮制的“超女神话”，来冷静客观地看待这一立体营销的运作思路。

问题的提出

1、  按照以往的经验，一项新生事物的成功容易很快遭到复制，因此缩短了产品的生命周期。“超女”作为单独的节目已经引来国内众多传媒的无改动模仿。那么，从国内传媒的现状来看，“超女”模式能否被复制？这种模式是否具有推广性？

2、  “超女”的兴盛离不开赞助商内蒙古蒙牛乳业集团，自然“超女”旺盛的人气带动了酸酸乳销量直线上升。然而从战略的层面上看，广告（不管是传统的媒介还是整合媒介）长期的影响应为宣传企业的品牌核心价值、强化品牌利益感知。那么，“超女”如何能够保证蒙牛酸酸乳持续稳定的销量提升，而不是短期的卫星释放？

3、  现在，掌上灵通借助“超女”打出的仅为短信投票和互动产品，这仅为手机增值服务的一部分，远未触及到更多的无线服务。那么，“超女”品牌如何为SP企业提供互联网经营的契机？或者反过来，SP企业如何为“超女”们完成了完美渠道平台的搭建？

4、  最惊险的设计和运作体现在三类不同性质的组织为了利益目标近乎完美地合作着。“超级女声”既然号称2005年最辉煌的立体合作案例，我们的兴趣自然就放在他们之间是怎么协调利益的？他们整合营销的战略对营销人有什么启示？

佳能革命挑战分工

      首先发现分工效率的是1729年，孟德维尔Bernard Mandeville <蜜蜂的语言>The Fable of Bees中说道：“劳动分工是多年来经济发展的手段。对于‘野蛮人’来说，这是‘改善他们的状况的最可信赖的方法’”。仅仅用分工便可说明，“文明社会中最卑贱、最被人瞧不起的成员，却要比最受人尊敬、最勤劳的野蛮人生活得要好”（《弗朗西斯.哈奇森》，1900年）。随即，亚当.斯密Adam. Smith借《道德情操论》阐述了分工哲学曾面的意义。他说，作为生物的人类，是由感情驱动的，同时又上由理智和同情心自行节制的。那么，在自我保存和自身利益这种高于一切的感情面前，形成“自我判断”（包括对自己行为的判断）的能力的源泉是什么呢？虽然人类的二元性使人们彼此斗争，但每一个人都有一个“内在的自我”（inner man），他起着“公正的旁观者”的作用，用一种不容忽视的声音去赞成或谴责我们自己的以及他人的行为。依靠“公正的旁观者”——由理智和同情心节制的人性去对私人行为提供必要的约束。其后的《国富论》An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations Introductory找到了一个约束的机制，那就是“自由竞争”，open competition使一个人的自我改善的动力和另一个人的自我改善的动力相抗衡。这种抗衡可以去协调单是盲目服从感情所内含的可能具有的破坏性。正在为自我改善而进行的激烈斗争中，调节经济的看不见的手invisible hand表现它自己。

 《国富论》第一编（book 1）中指出了“分工”的三个优势：“increasing dexterity in every particular workman, saving the time commonly lost in passing from one species of work to another, and inventing a great number of machines which facilitate and abridge labor, and enable one man to do the work of many”。斯密奠定了“分工”合理化的理论基础，其后的经济学家构建国际经济与贸易理论均以分工作为基础和前提。1997年澳大利亚的杨小凯教授主要通过非线性规则和角点解的方法，从理论上推算了分工演进在经济增长和技术进步中的决定性作用（新兴古典经济学）Neo-classic economics。

分工效率内核在于对劳动者本质的理解，认为被配置的人不过是一种资源，一种生产要素production factor。根据生产需要去安排的生产要素，本身只是一个大机器上的“螺丝钉”，一成不变的、简单重复的机械动作，基本等同于机器手、脚或机器人。劳动者不需要思考，也不必思考，还不可能思考的。在这种观念的指导下，劳动者们被固定在生产线的某个环节上，只是简单的重复从事一个完全产品中某个零部件的安装或安插，如此的“专门化”大大地提高了操作效率。

现在，这种生产方式受到了严峻的挑战。当1998年日本的佳能公司canon 将某些产品（如彩色复印机、数码相机）的生产从国外搬回日本，采用非传送带式的生产方式时，一场生产方式的革命就开始了。经过几年的运行来看，这场革命的胜利来得迅速而惊天动地。最重要的是，它预示了一种新的企业的未来和社会发展的未来。专门化或专业化被综合化或整体化所代替，可以为之佐证的新经济增长理论将人力资本开发引入到经济增长模型中，从而内生地解释经济增长。当每个劳动力成为“完整人”，有了产品整体的概念，劳动者自身也成了整体产品的驾驭者。

我们关心的问题有两个，一是：整体化在佳能公司最终能否成功，二是，整体化这种典型的制度创新是否具有推广性。对于前一问题，可以看几个简单的数据：从1998年到2002年，佳能在日本将6.6万英尺的传送带弃而不用，带来了一定的成本耗费；加上其他方面增加的成本，佳能在日本国内生产的总成本与国外生产基地相比大量增加，并且日本劳动者的平均月工资是中国劳动者的30倍。然而，从1998年到2003年，“佳能革命”帮助佳能减少了2.7万个劳动力，同时提高了劳动率50%。仅2004年整个财务年度，所有业务及关联公司的合并利润就增长了16%，连续第5年刷新利润记录。

此外，根据国际经济学要素禀赋论Factor Endowment Theory的结论，一国应生产其具有相对要素丰度factor-abundant的要素密集型factor-intensive 商品，引申出来佳能这类生产劳动力密集型labor-intensive相机、办公用品的公司就应该追随低廉劳动力供给的产地。而具有反讽意义的是，佳能把生产线assembly line从中国、东南亚国家等海外生产基地搬回日本，竟然取得了巨大的成功。佳能不仅对分工假设构成挑战，也为经典国际经济理论引入了又一个“Leontief scarce-factor paradox”.

在“佳能革命”下成就了的人，当然具有更高的价值创造力，他们为企业带来的收益。它之所以可称之为革命，可以迅速地成功，是劳动者从“局部人”、“零件人”或根本不是人，进化到“人”的结果。并且，整体化需要高素质的综合技能劳动者，而日本能够提够足够量的此类劳动力。“佳能革命”迅速在日本及反应敏捷的一些国家或地区扩展开来。

经济的增长在后现代时期获得了一种新的发展形式。从原始社会的自给自足，到工业社会的分工，再到信息时代的完整生产，人的创造力和精神越来越成为主要内生因素。根据沈利生和朱运法的《人力资本与经济增长分析》，以及加里.贝克尔1964年的专著《人力资本》human capital，教育水平程度、GDP、消费指数和固定资产投资等均是人力资本效率的解释变量。而国际经济学的要素禀赋论仅仅简单的把一国归为“劳动力丰裕”或，“资本丰裕”。这里的劳动力只是数量上的概念，或者几十年前，劳动者的普遍素质还不能达到完成整体产品的要求，不能作为一个“立体”的形象来考虑分析。

生产整体化给传统经济学引入了新的难题。就如同阿莱斯悖论Allais paradox对期望效用理论Expected Theory提出反论一样，如果分真如传统国际经济学中所述，佳能革命的成功又如何解释？它的逐渐扩展和普及意味着经济学理论必须修正或重建。我希望我能在这个过程中发挥我的作用。

作者：胡婷婷

How should one go about choosing a graduate school?

John Komlos: Of course, most people will apply to several universities, and it is important to do so in order to test the market. You may have certain notions about your qualifications, but how do they look on paper? How do they compare to those of others? How do others perceive them? There is no reason to assume that you will not be accepted into a particular program simply because you do not have excellent grades in the field. You might have other qualities that can compensate any deficiencies in your grade point average. Good GRE scores, for example, do help. Different departments weigh these various components of your record differently. In addition, departments vary on their standards for admission. Some are strict, feeling that by admitting a student, they make an implicit commitment to her that she has a fair chance of completing the program. Other equally good programs might take a more relaxed, laissez-faire attitude with respect to admissions, thinking that students have inside information on their abilities and should be given a chance to prove themselves, even if their record up to then was not impeccable. Students, they believe, will be weeded out in due course anyhow, by various filters the department has instituted, if they are not really qualified to do graduate work. These idiosyncratic philosophies will not be spelled out in black and white in the departmental manuals. So you should cast your application net widely. In addition to some safe bets, you should try some unlikely possibilities. More choices ought to be preferred to less. The good news is that practically everyone (87 percent, to be precise) who applies to an advanced-degree program gets at least one acceptance, and that means that you should have no problem getting into graduate school. You just need to seek out the right program for your set of abilities.

John Goldsmith: In smaller departments, it is usual for virtually all of the faculty to read most of the application dossiers, and read them quite carefully. Speaking personally, I am completely sold on a candidate who writes a perceptive personal statement that shows thoughtfulness and real interest in the field. I rarely see more than one or two of those in an entire year's harvest of applications. I suspect that applicants think their dossiers are going to some distant admissions office, but that's just not true. It's your future teachers who are deciding if they'd like you to come. Let me repeat that: real intelligence can be read in a personal essay, and this can easily outweigh the matter of grades or exam scores.

Penny Gold: The personal essay is also a crucial part of any applications you make for national graduate fellowships (Mellon, National Science Foundation, Javits, etc.). If you have begun work on an honors thesis or senior thesis or have done some other substantial piece of research work, you will have an advantage in writing such an essay, as this work will undoubtedly help you formulate your ideas on the kind of research you want to pursue in graduate school, the kinds of questions you anticipate asking. The people reading your essay are looking at how you present yourself intellectually and will use this presentation itself as a sample of your intellectual interests, the extent of your understanding of the field you are asking to enter, and your ability to write persuasively. You should expect to go through multiple drafts on this essay and should be sure to ask for comments from a professor experienced in graduate school admissions.

John Komlos: The essay also gives you the opportunity to reveal some of your significant attributes that may otherwise not be obvious from your application or to explain some of your apparent deficiencies that may no longer be relevant. You need to be credible, of course.

Before you make up your mind which program to choose, do visit the campuses because you can find out much more in face-to-face conversations about the atmosphere of the department than you can in correspondence. Be sure to talk to currently enrolled students. Ask them about the faculty's commitment to the graduate program. How well is the program organized? Talk to the graduate advisor. Ask her what the ratio of graduating to entering students is. Note that even in the best history departments only about half of the entering students leave with a Ph.D. in hand, and the average is closer to a quarter. These ratios vary by field and over time. If a program is well above or much below the average for the discipline, you have reliable information on which to base your judgment of how risky it is to enter that program. Another factor to consider is the success of the graduate students in obtaining employment in their field after earning the doctorate. Such information can be immensely useful when it comes time for you to make up your mind. If you are unable to find this information, ask the department's graduate secretary for help. In any case, you should not accept an offer blindly.

It is also useful to ascertain if the department is well represented in the various subspecialties in the field. If you plan to study the economics of the Third World, for example, you need to make sure that the department has sufficient depth in that area to support such a specialty. Are the faculty members well known in their field? Are they actively engaged in research? You should be able to form a preliminary opinion by seeking out publications of the professors in your field of potntial interest. If you find recently published papers or books, you can infer that the person is actively engaged in research and has been keeping up with recent developments in the field, not just living off past achievements. Another crucial consideration is her track record with graduate students. If she is frequently out of the country, she might be difficult to work with. Is she likely to retire soon? If so, you could be left hanging in the middle of your dissertation. Has she been producing graduate students lately? If she has not, that is an indication that perhaps she really does not have the inclination to do so, might be difficult to get along with, has too high expectations, or does not have the ideas to attract young entrants into the field. In any case, you should take such information seriously. By the way, do not assume that every professor is committed to working with graduate students. Those who are not will give you signals to stay away, though they will usually not tell you so outright. You may be able to confirm the meaning of these signals by talking with advanced graduate students in the department.

In any event, it is extremely important that you find the right program for your aspirations because this decision will have a significant impact on your career, including your ability to find employment. You should realize that your abilities alone will generally not suffice to be successful either in the academic world or in any other profession. We'll come back to this theme again, but I should mention now that the academic culture in America is influenced by the immense size of the market. In such a large market, it is costlier to acquire and process inside information than in smaller ones (Belgium, for instance), where the community of scholars is relatively tightly knit. In large markets, people might use symbols, images, and rule-of-thumb devices as substitutes for genuine information to arrive at a decision. Hence, a department's reputation is important, and affiliation with a top department will pay dividends. You need to know, however, that even the best departments will not cover all aspects of a discipline and will not cover equally well those parts they do cover. You need to keep these nuances in mind before making a decision.